Goodbye Taper? Huge Jobs Miss As US Adds Just 235K Jobs In August
As we previewed earlier, while consensus for today’s closely-watched payroll print was 725,000, a drop from last month’s 943K, the whisper expectation was for a number decidedly lower, with BMO underscoring this point noting that the August NFP print has a seasonal tendency to underwhelm estimates in August, doing so 75% of the time and beating 25% of the time by 18k and 47k, respectively, on average.
And sure enough, moments ago the BLS reported that in August just a paltry 235K jobs were added, far below the 725K expected, and a huge drop to last month’s upward revised 1.053MM. While we expect that the pundits will quickly blame the resurgence of covid in August, manifesting itself in zero jobs added in leisure and hospitality, the reality is that the US economy is rapidly slowing even as inflation continues to soar, positioning the US squarely for a stagflationary crash and putting the Fed’s tapering plans squarely in doubt.
Fri, 09/03/2021 – 08:35